The trend of growth in employment has flattened out, according to the latest analysis by the Department of Labour’s research centre, but is expected to pick up moderate momentum again in the next three quarters.
The centre’s quarterly Lead Employment Indicator (LEI) eased a smidgeon (down by a miniscule 0.1%) during the June 2011 quarter. The LEI index combines five economic indicators (including the stock market index) which historically have been shown to lead turning points in the employment cycle.
“The sideways movement in the June quarter does not constitute a turning point," says Vasantha Krishnan, head of the Labour and Immigration Research Centre. “That would require two consecutive quarterly movements in a new direction.” The indicator is still predicting that employment will increase by about 0.6% in the September 2011 quarter and between 0.4 and 0.6% in the following two quarters. After troughing during the second half of 2009, the LEI index had risen steadily over the last seven quarters prior to this quarter’s fall. It was up 1.3% in the March quarter.
The Jobs Online monthly report – which monitors the number of jobs advertised on SEEK and Trade Me – for July 2011 shows growth in online skilled job vacancies was also flat, compared to the previous month, although still 17% higher than a year ago. Canterbury led demand for skilled workers, with skilled vacancies growing 4.3% last month, followed by Wellington at 1.1%. Industries with the biggest growth nationally were education and training (up by a whopping 21.2%) and healthcare and medical (up by 3.5%).
• Click here for the July Jobs Online report and here for more information about the Lead Employment Indicator.
back to the newsletter